What will be the outcome of 25 Bahman?
First of all. The media is state controlled, so it is a very tedious process when it comes to the spread of information. Which, of course, in return, makes it very difficult to organize and coordinate. Just as you read or see on social sites, info has to be spread by fliers, posters, videos, CD’s, etc. Just as it always has, it starts in the Universities, spreads to family and friends, and then to the workplace. Also, while many in the suburbs have satellites, the majority do not, the same goes for computers and internet. Also, not everybody is on board yet, or at least not willing to sacrifice themselves, as they are not convinced of victory. After 31 years of being beat down, you can’t help but be pessimistic. Look at the Russians, it took 70+ years. But not to worry, patience and perseverance will change this. Remember, the 79 revolution took 1 year, and the Shah was nowhere near as brutal as these monsters. I can say with the utmost confidence, that if we had even an ounce of mass media, it would be a much different situation.
2. The IRGC of course is stepping up their offense. But they handle the high-profile threats, intel and coordination, while the basij take care of the intimidation and violence. General Jafari was appointed leader of the IRGC in 2005 because of his expertise in as symmetric warfare, as the regime was well aware of the growing dissent among the population. They had done a superb job (containing the protests), up until Ashura 2010. In my opinion, it was very important for us to battle, and win some on Ashura as it will show many who are still on the fence that we can succeed. There is, and always has been debate over peaceful or forceful revolution.
My heart says peaceful, but my head keeps telling me forceful, as I just can’t imagine in my wildest dreams, the regime laying down their weapons and walking away. I hope to hell I am wrong. The Shah had a conscience, the overwhelming majority of these bastards do not.
3. The Artesh (army) has been a bit of a disappointment so far, although, if you recall, back in July 2010 when Rafsanjani was delivering Friday Prayers, some 30 officers of Artesh were arrested and not heard from since. There is no doubt that there is dissention among the ranks, as many are conscripts. And, I still believe at the end of the day, that they will play a major role in the demise of the regime.
4. A general strike will definitely be the death knell for the regime. But that won’t happen on a mass level until we are near the end, that will be the final blow. I know from a source who is connected with some of the big bazaari’s, that many have been summoned to ore contacted by the Intel Ministry to see where their allegiance lies and have been warned against sedition. Again, the Bazaari’s are not going to risk it all until they are completely assured success. Which probably means, the regime is significantly weakened ( were getting there), they have some assurance from connections in the military, and they see significant movement on the ground (more successes like Ashura).
5. There has always been underground resistance, but there are many different non-related groups(ethnic groups), mostly near the border cities where weapons can be smuggled into the country. The Universities also have an underground, but not armed, they are the initiatory of protest, disseminators of information and ideas, organizers and strategists. There strategy appears to be attacking from the bottom and the top simultaneously. By supporting the reformists they are allowing the regime to fight among themselves and divide them to the point of no return (a house divided cannot stand). On the other hand, protesting from the bottom, and the subsequent crackdown, is not only angering and galvanizing the population, but it also helps to divide the regime. The underground University movement once released a manifesto suggesting that they are well aware of the sacrifice that is needed to succeed (many willing to sacrifice their lives for the greater good). Although, all of this would not have been realized if not for the regime’s theft of the election.
Thank God for their short-sightedness and underestimation of the people’s strength and determination. In closing, the situation is so complicated, with so many variables, and so many interests, it would take a 1000 page book to analyze. But, the bottom line is that the overwhelming majority definitely want to see the regime burn, of this I can assure you.
25 Bahman can bring the beginning of the end of the Iranian Government. If millions will join and be united. Fill the streets with green again as far you can see. But not just a single day. Everyday till freedom.
Raymond Morrison
